Premature mortality from NCDs: an analysis of Brazil from 2015 to 2022

Abstract

Introduction: Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) occupied 7 places among 10 of the main causes of death in the world, namely diseases of the circulatory system, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer and type II diabetes mellitus, diseases associated with lifestyle. Considering the impact of these diseases, the Ministry of Health prepared the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling NCDs between 2011-2022. Among the established goals, the reduction of premature mortality from NCDs by 2% per year stands out. Objective: To investigate premature mortality from NCDs from 2015 to 2022, in Brazil. Method: Ecological study of temporal analysis of mortality between 2015 and 2022. The mortality rate (tM) was calculated from the following equation: tM= n deaths X 100,000/population. Results: 2,450,264 deaths were identified, the average annual tM was 146.34 and the average increase in tM was 0.66 per year, occurring irregularly over time: between 2015 and 2017, the variation tM average was +0.85%, and between 2015 and 2019, +0.68%. 2020 stood out for presenting a variation of -1.03% in tM compared to the previous year. In the remaining years, tM resumed its increasing trend, of 1.96% in 2021 and 0.99% in 2022. In absolute numbers, no Federative Unit (UF) showed an average mortality variation of less than 2% throughout the period . There was a tendency towards a decrease in the premature mortality rate in 6 of the 27 Federative Units (UFs): Pernambuco (-2.70%), Sergipe (-2.15%), Rio de Janeiro (-7.02%), Paraná ( -1.52%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.17%) and Federal District (-11.55%). Conclusion: It can be seen that, despite the tendency to reduce premature mortality rates in only 6 FUs, the target of 2% reduction per year in premature mortality due to NCDs was achieved by 18 FUs in at least 1 year, but none achieved maintain the reduction constantly, in every year, in the period from 2015 to 2022, highlighting the need to develop strategies that support this reduction, according to the specific demands of each state.